Christopher Pasatieri/Getty Images
Fresh off their World Series victory, the Los Angeles Dodgers could land arguably the best pitcher on the free-agent market if he becomes available this offseason.
Per ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, the Dodgers are “heavily favored” to land Japanese star Roki Sasaki, as “indications” are that the Chiba Lotte Marines will post him for MLB clubs.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported in August that Sasaki was likely to renew his request with the NPB club to post him this offseason, but it was unclear if they would acquiesce because it’s financially beneficial to them to wait.
Per MLB rules, foreign-born players under the age of 25 with fewer than six seasons of professional experience are subject to international bonus pool restrictions.
When Shohei Ohtani signed with the Los Angeles Angels in December 2017, his original signing bonus was only $2.3 million because he was only 22 years old at the time.
If the Marines waited until after the 2026 season to post Sasaki, he would be free to sign for any amount he could get from an MLB team. They would get a release fee that is based on the percentage of the contract he signs. For example, the Orix Buffaloes received a release fee of approximately $50 million from the Dodgers for their $325 million deal with Yoshinobu Yamamoto last offseason.
McDaniel noted that international bonus pools will reset after Dec. 15 to give teams around $7 million to spend, but the pools will be limited to around $2.5 million at most if he gets posted before that date.
Despite the interest from the Dodgers, McDaniel did explain there are “complicating factors” that could prevent the World Series champs from landing Sasaki. Some thought he might prefer a smaller market, and there are concerns that he might be “nursing an injury” because his velocity was down this season.
Sasaki’s average fastball velocity in the in the 2023 WBC semifinals for Japan against Mexico was 100.5 mph.
Even in the “worst” season of his career in 2024, Sasaki still finished with a 2.35 ERA, 129 strikeouts and 83 hits allowed in 111 innings. He went 10-5 in 18 games for the Marines.
If any team in MLB knows how to navigate pitcher injuries, it’s the Dodgers. They just won the World Series without Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone, Bobby Miller and Clayton Kershaw throwing a pitch in the postseason.
Hopefully there’s nothing physically wrong with Sasaki, especially if he gets posted this offseason, because he’s been one of the best players in NPB since making his debut in 2021. He threw a 19-strikeout perfect game in April 2022.
Sasaki was named to the NPB All-Star team in 2022 and 2023. The right-hander has a 2.10 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 505 strikeouts in 394.2 innings in four seasons with the Marines.
